地震短临预测的困难和出路  

DIFFICULTY AND WAY-OUT OF THE SHORT-AND IMMEDIATE-TERM EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

作　　者：苏恺之[1] 李世林[2] 

机构地区：[1]国家地震局地壳应力研究所,北京100085 [2]云南省地震局,昆明650041

出　　处：《地震研究》1992年第4期433-439,共7页Journal of Seismological Research

摘　　要：地震短临预报问题已被提到议事日程,是出自社会的需要,也是由于许多前兆手段(只要它能作较为连续的观测),都曾得到一些短临异常资料。这些资料是珍贵而令人鼓舞的,不过迄今为止,人们对实现准确的短临预测仍感极度困难。不断分析困难的原因,才能寻求出前进之路。Now the problem oi short and immediate-term earthquake prediction has been put on the agenda. It is because of the social requirement and also because of some anomalous short and immediate-term data obtained from various precursory approaches (Precursory approaches thai can be observed continuously). Those data are valuable and promising. Up to now, however, it is still very difficult to make an exact short and immediate-term prediction. The only way-out to advance step by step is to analyse the causes of those difficulties progressively.

关 键 词：地震预报 短临预测 地震 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]