北京远期能源需求与大气环境目标及近期对策探讨  

Study on Beijing's Long-term Energy Demand and Goal of Air Quality Requests and Their Impact on Near-term Strategy

作　　者：吕应运[1] 佟庆[2] 徐滨 仝德良[3] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学 [2]清华大学公共管理学院,北京100084 [3]北京城市规划设计研究院,北京100045

出　　处：《清华大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2002年第6期86-92,共7页Journal of Tsinghua University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

基　　金：清华大学"九八五"研究项目 (0 82 10 0 10 0 ;京计基础字 (2 0 0 1) 12 130 )

摘　　要：北京市为实现本世纪前半叶建成世界一流国际化大都市的战略目标及实施能源结构调整规划 ,需要研究远期能源需求和大气环境目标。文章根据北京市的发展战略和规划 ,并与国际上的发展进行比较 ,测算了届时的能源需求 ,探讨了应达到的大气环境目标 ,分析了达到未来大气环境目标的不同进程对能源系统成本的影响。建议在保证大气环境质量整体效果情况下 ,采用渐近进程减少能源引起的大气污染 ,以降低能源系统成本 ;并在考虑远期能源与大气环境要求下 ,分析了近期发展热电联产和煤炭利用对策问题。Since Beijing will be built into a big international city which is a first rate one in the world, and a plan of energy restructure adjustment is carried out, it is necessary to study Beijing's long term energy demand and the goal of air quality requests. Based Beijing's development strategy and plans, and compared with development in the world, Beijing's long term energy demand is forecasted, the goal of air quality requests is studied, and the impact of different progress schedules to meet the goal of air quality requests on the cost of energy system is analyzed. It is suggested that air pollution from energy use can be gradually reduced for decreasing the cost of energy system, when the whole level of air quality requests is ensured. Because of long term energy demand and the goal of air quality requests, the near term strategies for co generation and coal using are analyzed.

关 键 词：北京能源需求预测 大气环境质量 能源结构调整 能源对策 

分 类 号：X51[环境科学与工程—环境工程]