江苏地区地下水位固体潮加卸载响应比的时空演变特征及预测意义  

Characteristics of the temporal-spacial evolution of the loading/unloading response ratio of the ground water level to earth tides in Jiangsu region and its implications to earthquake prediction

作　　者：徐桂明[1] 冯志生[1] 唐振芳[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省地震分析预报研究中心,江苏南京210014

出　　处：《地震学刊》2002年第4期26-31,35,共7页Journal of Seismology

基　　金：中国地震局"地震监测;预报;科研三结合"研究课题

摘　　要：　根据加卸载响应比理论,通过对1991～1996年江苏省部分井孔观测资料固体潮加卸载响应比的计算发现,在中强地震前一年左右的时间震中区附近的井孔出现了响应比高值异常。通过空间图像扫描可以看出:在苍山地震前一年左右,徐州、宿迁地区出现了加卸载响应比的高值集中区;在南黄海地震前一年左右,在镇江、苏州地区出现了高值集中区,之后高值集中区有自西向东迁移即有向震中区迁移的迹象。The loading/unloading response ratios of earth tides are calculated using the observation data from part of the wells in Jiangsu Province in the period of 1991～1996 on the basis of the theory of loading/unloading response ratio. As a result, it is found that high value anomalies of response ratio appeared at wells near the epicentral area about one year before moderate earthquakes. Based on the scanning of spacial patterns it can be seen that concentrated areas of high loading/unloading response ratio values appeared in Xuzhou and Suqian regions about one year before the Cangshan earthquake. Concentrated areas of high values appeared in Zhenjiang and Suzhou regions about one year before the Southern Yellow Sea earthquake, and then the concentrated areas of high values show signs of migrations from west to east, that is, migrations towards the epicentral area.

关 键 词：江苏 地下水位 加卸载响应比 地震预报 地震前兆 

分 类 号：P315.723[天文地球—地震学]