基于Copula理论的多个风电场出力建模  

Power Output Modeling of Multi-wind Farms Based on Copula Theory

作　　者：王春明[1] 蔡德福[2] 

机构地区：[1]华中电网公司,湖北武汉430077 [2]国网湖北省电力公司电力科学研究院,湖北武汉430077

出　　处：《湖北电力》2015年第6期5-8,共4页Hubei Electric Power

摘　　要：本文采用Copula理论建立了多个风电场出力的模型,根据风电场出力的实测离散数据构建其经验概率分布函数,给出了建立模型的基本步骤。以两组风电场出力的实测离散数据为参考,分析了多个风电场出力模型在相关性、数字特征和概率分布曲线方面的计算精度。仿真结果表明采用Copula理论的多个风电场出力模型具有很高的精度。Modeling power output of multi-wind farms (POMWF)is a basic work to study the opera-tion characteristic of a power system with several wind farms.In this paper,the POMWF is modeled by Copula theory.The empirical probability distribution function of wind farm power output is con-structed by its measured discrete data.The procedure of modeling POMWF based on Copula theory is presented.Two groups of measured discrete data of POMWF are taken as references,the accuracy of POMWF model based on Copula theory is analyzed,including correlation,statistical properties and probability distribution curve.The simulation results show that the model of POMWF based on Copu-la theory has high accuracy.

关 键 词：风电场出力 COPULA理论 相关性 实测离散数据 

分 类 号：TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]