基于Logistic模型的湖北饱和电力需求预测  

Research on Saturated Electricity Consumption Forecasting of Hubei Province based on Logistic Model

作　　者：丁珩[1] 童雅芳[1] 郭森[2] 周小兵 

机构地区：[1]国网湖北省电力公司经济技术研究院,湖北武汉430077 [2]华北电力大学,北京102206

出　　处：《湖北电力》2015年第8期31-34,共4页Hubei Electric Power

摘　　要：总结了"十一五"以来湖北省经济运行及电力消费概况,对全省目前所处的发展阶段和未来发展趋势进行了分析。采用Logistic模型对湖北省用电量和最大负荷的长期发展趋势进行预测,得出湖北省未来电力需求饱和规模及时间点,为电网规划提供参考。The economic development and electricity consumption in Hubei province since 2005 was summarized in this paper.At the same time the economic development stage and trend were also analyzed.A Logistic model was used to forecast the long-term electricity consumption and peak load in Hubei province.The saturation value and saturation time of electricity consumption in Hubei province was further calculated with useful result in power grid planning.

关 键 词：电网规划 长期电力消费预测 LOGISTIC模型 饱和负荷 饱和用电量 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]