中国文化产业发展与影响因素的协整分析  

Co-integration analysis of Chinese cultural industry development and the influencing factors

作　　者：李曼[1] 宋瑶[1] 吴文清[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学管理与经济学部,天津300072

出　　处：《河北工业科技》2015年第3期196-201,共6页Hebei Journal of Industrial Science and Technology

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(13CGL018)

摘　　要：国家"十二五"时期文化改革发展规划纲要明确指出,到2015年使文化产业发展为国民经济支柱产业,如何促进文化产业又好又快发展是一个重要的课题。在分析影响文化产业发展的因素、平稳性检验的基础上,通过协整分析、构建误差修正模型和向量自回归模型,采用1992—2012年的样本数据,对中国文化产业发展与影响因素进行实证分析,定量揭示了文化产业增加值和文化事业费及文化基建投资之间的长期效应和短期效应,并提出了相关建议。研究表明,中国文化产业发展与文化事业费、文化产业实际完成的基础建设投资存在协整关系,文化产业增加值不仅取决于文化事业费和基础建设投资的变化,还取决于上一期文化产业增加值对均衡水平的偏离。The national cultural reform and development plan in'Twelfth Five Year'period clearly points out that by 2015 the development of cultural industry would be a pillar industry of the national economy,so how to promote the sound and rapid development of cultural industry is an important subject.The factors of the development of cultural industry are analyzed.Based on stationarity test,by co-integration analysis,constructing error correction model and vector auto regression model,using the annual data of 1992-2012,the empirical analysis on the factors of the development of China's cultural industry is made.The quantitative data reveal the long-term effect and short-term effect among cultural industry added value,cultural undertakings and cultural infrastructure investment.Aiming that,some proposals are put forward.The results show there is co-integration relationship among cultural industry added value,cultural undertakings and cultural infrastructure investment.The added value of cultural industry depends not only on the cultural undertakings and infrastructure investment,but also on deviating from the equilibrium level of the culture industry in a period of increased value.

关 键 词：文化社会学 文化产业 协整分析 误差修正模型 脉冲响应 

分 类 号：G124[文化科学]