王家厂水库洪水实时预报方法及应用研究  

Research on the Method and Application of Real-Time Flood Forecast in Wangjiachang Reservoir

作　　者：王贝[1] 宋星原[1] 戴自逑[1] 杜勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水利水电学院,430072

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2003年第1期79-81,共3页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大项目50099620)

摘　　要：考虑到流域降雨时空变化和流域地形、河道特征对流域产汇流的影响,应用新安江三水源产流模型、流域分散入流非线性汇流模型以及流域洪水实时预报校正模型,对王家厂流域洪水进行模拟,取得了较为满意的计算结果。The effects of the rainfall space-time variation, the topography as well as the river channel characters on the runoff yield and concentration in a valley are considered. This paper adopts the three-water-source runoff yield model of Xin'an River, the nonlinear concentration model for dispersion inflow and the model of real-time flood forcast emendation to simulate the flood of Wangjiachang Valley. It is shown that the models are effective in practical use and the results are reasonable.

关 键 词：王家厂水库 洪水 实时预报 蓄满产流模型 可变遗忘因子 最小二乘法 

分 类 号：P338.6[天文地球—水文科学] TV697.21[水利工程—水文学及水资源]