可考虑历史洪水对数正态分布线性矩法的研究  

Study on L-moment estimation method with consideration of historical floods for log-normal distribution

作　　者：陈元芳[1] 沙志贵 顾圣华 许圣斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水资源环境学院,江苏南京210098 [2]长江水利委员会水文局,湖北武汉430010 [3]上海市水文总站,上海200232

出　　处：《河海大学学报（自然科学版）》2003年第1期80-83,共4页Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences)

摘　　要：简要介绍对数正态分布线性矩与分布参数的关系,提出两种可考虑历史洪水的样本线性矩估计公式.统计试验结果表明,估计公式均具有较高精度.从两种估算公式中推荐一种效果更好的供实际频率计算使用,从而解决了具有历史洪水时对数正态分布的样本线性矩的计算问题.此外,对线性矩法与矩法、适线法作了对比分析,结果表明,线性矩法比矩法、适线法有较大的优越性,其不偏性能最好且具有良好的有效性.The relationship between Lmoments and parameters of the lognormal distribution was briefly introduced, then two formulae considering historical floods were proposed for estimation of the Lmoments of samples. The MonteCarlo calculation shows that both of the two formulae are of high accuracy in the estimation of the parameters and their design values, and the better one is recommended to be used in practice. A comparison of the moment method, the curvefitting method, and the Lmoment estimation method was carried out by use of the MonteCarlo experiment, and the results show that the Lmoment estimation method is the best.

关 键 词：历史洪水 对数正态分布 线性矩法 

分 类 号：TV122.2[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P333.9[天文地球—水文科学]