大仓鼠种群季节存活率的估算  

ESTIMATION OF SEASONAL SURVIVAL RATES OF CRICETULUS TRITON POPULATIONS

作　　者：张知彬[1] 朱靖[1] 杨荷芳[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院动物研究所,北京100080

出　　处：《动物学报》1992年第2期151-155,共5页ACTA ZOOLOGICA SINICA

摘　　要：本文依据夹捕法所获得的大仓鼠种群总数量和孕鼠数量等数据资料,探讨一种估算种群季节存活率的方法。其原理如下: 设NP_K、N_K和D_K分别为第K次取样时孕鼠数量、总数量和采样间隔,L为平均胎仔数,T_1为可见胚胎发育历期,T_2为从胚胎起至其被捕获的平均历期。 首先将各取样时刻的NP_K,N_K依次连接成折线,求出对应时刻t的NP(t)和N(t)。然后可得到t时刻新增加孕鼠数量NNP(t)为NP(t+h)/T_1,这里h=1NT(T_1/2),1NT表示取整函数。若S(t)为t时刻瞬时存活率,且P(t)=S(0)·S(1)……S(t-1),即P(t)为从t=0时刻至t=t时刻之间的总存活率,则有: N(t+1)= S(t)·[N(t)+NNP(t-T_2)·L·P(t)/P(t-T_2)]这样便可求出瞬时存活率S(t)。 将上述计算步骤编译成Basic程序,对1986和1988年河北饶阳县大仓鼠种群季节存活率作了估算。Based on the data of total numbers of trapped small mammals and the numbers of pregnant females, we put forward a new method to estimate the seasonal survival rates as follows:Provided NPk, Nk, and Dk are respectively pregnant number, total number and sample interval. L is litter size. Tl is development time of visible embryo. T2 is development time from visible embryo to the juveniles being trapped. S(t) is instantaneous survival rate at time t. P(t) is total survival rate from t = 0 to t = t, i.e. P(t) = S(0)*S(1)*S(2)*…S(t-1).From NPk, Nk, and Dk the NP(t) and N(t) can be calculated. The newly pregnant female number NNP(t) at time t is NP(t + h)/Tl(here,h = INT(T1/2),INT is integer function). As N(t + 1) = S(t)*(N(t) + NNP(t - T2)* L*P(t)/P(t-T2)),so S(t) = N(t + l)/(N(t) + NNP(t - T2)*L*P(t)/P(t - T,)).With the above method the seasonal survival rates of C. triton population in Hebei province, China, in 1986 and 1988 were estimated and we found that the higher air temperature and heavy rainfall in summer correlate negatively with the survival of the population.

关 键 词：啮齿类 季节活率 种群动态 

分 类 号：Q959.837[生物学—动物学]