地震活动因子A值在川滇地区Ms≥6地震中短期预报中的应用  

APPLICATION OF SEISMICITY FACTOR VALUE-A TO THEMEDIUM-AND SHORT-TERM PREDICTION OF M_S≥6EARTHQUAKES IN SICHUAN AND YUNNAN

作　　者：付虹[1] 王炜[2] 王世芹[1] 林辉[1] 

机构地区：[1]云南省地震局,云南昆明650041 [2]上海市地震局,上海200062

出　　处：《内陆地震》2002年第3期205-212,共8页Inland Earthquake

基　　金："十五"地震预报科技攻关课题资助 ( 0 1 -0 2 -0 4 )

摘　　要：对 1971— 2 0 0 0年间川滇地区 ML≥ 2 .5地震资料进行地震活动因子 A值的空间扫描 ,结果表明 :川滇地区 80 %的 MS≥ 6地震前 1— 2年 ,在未来震中周围有 A值异常出现。用 R值对其进行评分 ,可以通过检验。通过与华北地区的部分结果进行比较 。The seismicity factor value-A was calculated based M-L≥2.5 earthquake data in Sichuan and Yunnan in 1971-2000, and corresponding spatial varying patterns of value-A were given. It is shown that value-A anomalies appeared near the epicenters 1-2 years before the 80 percent of the M-S≥6 events in the research area. The prediction result of value-A was marked by value R, which passed the test. The research result was compared with some results from the North China, and the difference of the seismogenic processes in these two areas was discussed.

关 键 词：地震活动性 中期地震预报 长期地震预报 地震活动因子A值 川滇地区 Ms≥6 

分 类 号：P315.5[天文地球—地震学]