应用逐步回归分析气象因素对杉木涩籽流行的影响  

Effect of Meteorological Factors on the Epidemic of Chinese Fir Sterile Seed Studied by Means of Stepwise Regression Analysis

作　　者：林思祖[1] 黄烺增 叶建春[1] 方兴添 

机构地区：[1]福建省林学院杉木研究所

出　　处：《福建林学院学报》1992年第3期317-321,共5页Journal of Fujian College of Forestry

摘　　要：本文应用逐步回归分析47个影响杉木涩籽流行率的气象因素,并拟合预测模型。分析结果表明,本预测模型复相关系数达极显著水平,涩籽流行率与3月降雨量、7月相对湿度及8月降雨量呈正相关,与8月最高气温、3月日照时数、5月蒸发量、9月最高气温及7月蒸发量呈负相关。This paper, applying stepwise regression analysis to selecting the 47 monthly meterological factors effecting on the epidemic rate of Chinese-fir sterile seed, fits a model for forecasting the epidemics rate(Y) as follows: Y =164.252-0.462X1-0.31lX2 + 0. 379X7+ 0.710X9-0.399X12 + 0.32X22 -0.552X25-0.189X28 (R=0.97 F=24.473**) The result of the test of partial correlation showed that there were positive re_ lationships between the epidemic rate(Y) and the rainfall in March(X7), between Y and the relative moisture July(X22), and between Y and rainfall in August(X9); and that there were negative relationships between Y and sunshine time in March(X12),between Y and evaporation in May(X25) and in July-(X16) and between Y and highest air temperature in August(X1) aud in Septe-mber(X2).

关 键 词：杉木 涩籽 逐步回归 应用 气象条件 

分 类 号：S791.270.1[农业科学—林木遗传育种]