我国能源经济复杂系统仿真研究  

Simulation of Complexity for China's Energy Economy System

作　　者：张宏民[1] 葛家理[1] 

机构地区：[1]石油大学复杂性科学中心,北京102249

出　　处：《系统仿真学报》2002年第11期1443-1446,共4页Journal of System Simulation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金委管理学部主任专项基金项目(70041046)

摘　　要：针对传统“数量能源经济理论”的局限性,以“结构牵动论”代替传统数量能源观的“速度牵动论”,提出以产业结构和能源结构的双重优化来推动国民经济发展;同时又用“效益配置理论”代替传统能源经济的“热量平衡论”,将决策的能源总量,用泛函极值协调配置理论,以系统经济效益最优为目标进行了优化配置;人机结合的专家决策研讨厅利用可操作的杠杆调节以及调节后的信息反馈,可以实现能源经济复杂系统发展的社会目标。Considering the shortcomings of the so called quantity-oriented energy economics, this paper presents a two-way driven, dynamic model of the quality-oriented energy economics and, a new way of improving energy efficiency by optimizing both supply structure and consuming structure of energy. The principle of profit top-priority for energy development is put forward, and with the limitation of minimum cost, the method of pan logistic extremum is used to optimization our country抯 energy structure. With operational lever and corresponding information feedback, experts?workshop can be used to realize the goal of energy-economy system.

关 键 词：能源经济学 复杂系统 专家研讨厅 

分 类 号：F426.2[经济管理—产业经济] N945.[自然科学总论—系统科学]