电力系统可靠性原始参数的改进预测  

PREDICTION OF ORIGINAL RELIABILITY PARAMETER OF POWER SYSTEMS BY AN IMPROVED GREY MODEL

作　　者：任震[1] 万官泉[1] 黄金凤[1] 黄雯莹[1] 高志华[2] 

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学电力学院,广东省广州市510640 [2]广东省电力调度中心,广东省广州市510600

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2003年第4期37-40,81,共5页Automation of Electric Power Systems

摘　　要：电力系统可靠性原始参数的分析与确定是可靠性评估的基础。针对电力系统可靠性原始参数的缺乏和开发电力系统可靠性原始参数小样本系统增加数据量的重要性 ,在对灰色预测模型进行深入研究的基础上 ,建立了一种改进 B矩阵的加权均值迭代生成和预测算法的改进灰色预测方法。改进灰色预测方法在建模和预测时充分利用最新的 4个信息 ,通过引入加权值对新旧信息做出不同的补偿 ,并采用加入新信息、去掉旧信息的新陈代谢灰色预测算法 ,大大减少了计算量 ,增强了新信息的作用和提高了预测的精度。通过对新投入的线路元件无故障工作时间预测 ,并进行传统模型和改进模型的结果精度比较 ,表明了改进的模型和预测算法预测电力系统可靠性原始参数的准确性。The electric power system reliability evaluation is based on the analyzing and establishing of the original reliability parameter. According to the lack of the original reliability parameter and the importance of exploiting original reliability parameter of small stylebook systems to add the quantity of the data, an improved grey model is set up by improving the weighted average iteration and prediction algorithm of B matrix. The method uses four pieces of new messages to make compensation for the new and the old messages by introducing weight, and adopts the metabolism grey prediction algorithm with adding new messages and abandoning old messages. So the calculation burden is reduced greatly, the function of new messages and prediction precision are improved. The numerical example for MTTF of newly used lines and the comparison result of precision between the traditional model and improved model indicate the correctness, availability and practicality of the proposed method.

关 键 词：电力系统 可靠性原始参数 改进灰色模型 预测 

分 类 号：TM762[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]