干旱区人工绿洲规模的预测研究——以新疆叶尔羌河平原绿洲为例  

A Forecasting Study on the Artificial Oasis Scale in Arid Land

作　　者：邓永新[1] 樊自立[1] 韩德林[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院新疆生物土壤沙漠研究所,乌鲁木齐830011 [2]中国科学院新疆地理研究所,乌鲁木齐830011

出　　处：《干旱区研究》1992年第1期53-58,共6页Arid Zone Research

摘　　要：规模适度的人工绿洲,是干旱区经济发展、社会稳定及生态环境向良性循环方向演化的基础。同时,人工绿洲规模又受水资源及其利用水平的严重制约。用系统动力学方法模拟特定区域内由人工绿洲、天然绿洲和水资源及其相关因子构成的复杂系统,并对模型运行结果进行回归分析,可建立合理的人工绿洲规模与水资源开发规模及利用水平之间的相关关系,进而对一定时期合理的人工绿洲规模进行预测。本文以叶尔羌河流域为例应用这一方法做了一点尝试。In arid land, a moderate-scale artificial oasis benefits the developnlent of economy, society and ecological environment. Mean while, the oasis scale is critically restricted by water resources and its utilization. Using the method of System Dynamics, this paper stimulated the system formed by the above factors and other related factors. Then, the results of this pattern were analysed by a regressive method and some relational equalities were built up. By means of these, the rational oasis scale in a certain period can be forecasted.

关 键 词：人工绿洲 规模 预测 叶尔羌河 

分 类 号：S812[农业科学—草业科学]