正负地震差值Se值在华东地震中期预报的应用  

Application of difference Se value of positive and negative earthquakes in the mid-term earthquake prediction in East China

作　　者：陈宇卫[1] 张军[1] 庆梅[1] 闫素萍[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽省地震局,中国合肥230031

出　　处：《地震地磁观测与研究》2003年第1期49-54,共6页Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research

基　　金：安徽省地震科研重点基金成果之一

摘　　要：使用反映应力调制作用的正负地震差值Se值对华东地区进行空间扫描。结果表明,中强地震前,华东陆地5级地震前1～3 a会出现正负地震差值Se值异常,未来地震会发生在异常单元150 km区域内或周边地区,而霍山地区出现Se值异常后,能较好的对应华东海域和陆地5级以上地震。因此,该方法在华东地区具有较好的预报效果。In this paper, the seismicity data are used to apace scanning in East China by using difference Se value of positive and negative earthquakes which reflects modulation effect. The results show that there are obvious anomaly zones of Se value about 1～3 years before the medium and strong earthquakes in East China land. The epicenters of future earthquakes lie in the region of anomaly unit about 150 km or the surrounding areas. The earthquakes ( MS ≥ 5.0 ) in the ocean and land of East China will occur after appearing of the anomaly area of Se value in Huoshan area. Therefore, this method has better effects on earthquake prediction in East China.

关 键 词：应力调制 月相效应 地震活动 引潮力 触发作用 地震预报 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]