中国经济转型中的投资率问题  

Investment Rate In China's Economic Transition

作　　者：吴海英[1,2] 余永定[2] 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学统计与数学学院 [2]中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所

出　　处：《金融评论》2015年第6期15-29,123,共16页Chinese Review of Financial Studies

基　　金：中国社会科学院世界经济预测与政策模拟实验室的资助

摘　　要：官方统计显示:中国固定资产投资增速长期明显高于GDP增速,但投资率基本稳定。这种矛盾现象的存在源于全社会固定资产投资与固定资本形成统计差异的日益扩大。本文分析了二者日益扩大的差异原因,并发现2012～2014年,大约只有18%的差异来自二者统计口径的不同。中国投资率统计的可靠性取决于固定资本形成的可靠性,而对中国投资率真实水平的判断关乎中国宏观调控政策的走向。例如,以不变价计,2012～2014年固定资产投资按GDP核算原则调整后的投资率已逼近60%,由官方数据计算的增量资本产出率已接近7。面对这种低效投资,中国恐怕就不得不下调投资增速。反之,如果中国投资率真如官方数字所显示的,稳定在47%左右的水平上,则进一步提高投资率的可行性就不能完全排除。固定资产投资与固定资本形成统计的巨大差异严重影响了中国国民收入统计的可信性。本文认为,中国投资率过高导致了投资效率过低。完善投资及整个GDP统计,调整投资增速降低投资率,提高投资效率刻不容缓。Official statistics show that China's fixed asset investment growth rate was significantly higher than the GDP growth rate,but the investment rate is basically stable.The contradiction is due to the increasing expansion of statistical differences between fixed asset investment and fixed capital formation in the whole economy.This paper analyzes the phenomenon and found only about 18%of the difference came from the difference in statistical definition during 2012-2014.The reliability of China's investment rate statistics depends on the veracity of the fixed capital formation,and the judgment of the real level of China's investment rate is related to the trend of China's maoroeconomic policy.The huge difference between the figure of fixed assets investment and that of fixed capital formation has seriously affected the credibility of China's national income statistics.This paper argues that high investment rate in China implies low investment efficiency and it's imperative to improve the quality of statistics on investment and the entire GDP.

关 键 词：投资率 固定资产投资 固定资本形成 增量资本产出率 

分 类 号：F283[经济管理—国民经济]