我国信贷顺周期现象与审慎监管  

Pro-cyclicality of Credit and Prudential Supervision in China

作　　者：童中文[1,2] 魏歆七 范从来[3] 

机构地区：[1]南京师范大学商学院 [2]南京师范大学金融工程研究所 [3]南京大学

出　　处：《金融市场研究》2015年第8期78-87,共10页Financial Market Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(12CJY108);国家社会科学基金重点研究项目(11AJL003)的资助

摘　　要：我国存在较显著的信贷顺周期性,信贷规模变动与经济增长波动呈现出很强的关联性,导致贷款周期和银行系统性风险之间同样呈现显著关联性波动。本文对信贷规模、房价波动与银行系统性风险三者之间的关系以及传导机制进行分析,证实我国信贷顺周期现象显著存在。因此,对于银行的监管需宏观审慎监管、微观审慎监管和货币政策相协调。There is a relatively significant degree of pro-cyclicality in credit in China's economy. Changes in the scale of credit and economic growth show a strong correlation. This means that there is a significant correlation in the volatility between the lending cycle and systemic risk in the banking sector. This paper assesses the relationship between credit, volatility in housing prices and systematic risk at the nation's banks. It looks at the transmission mechanism to show that credit pro-cyclicality has been significant in China. It concludes there is a need for stepped up official coordination in macro and micro-prudential supervision as well as in monetary policy in the regulation and supervision of banks.

关 键 词：贷顺周期 银行系统性风险 审慎监管 

分 类 号：F832.4[经济管理—金融学]