扩展短期负荷预测的原理和方法  

EXTENDED SHORT-TERM LOAD FORECASTING PRINCIPLE AND METHOD

作　　者：莫维仁[1] 张伯明[1] 孙宏斌[1] 胡子珩 刘顺桂 

机构地区：[1]清华大学电机系,北京100084 [2]广电集团深圳分公司,广东深圳518001

出　　处：《中国电机工程学报》2003年第3期1-4,共4页Proceedings of the CSEE

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50107005)。~~

摘　　要：在电力市场环境下,制定和调整当日负荷计划的周期缩短,负荷预测系统需要在留有2 h时间裕度的情况下,对当日未知负荷进行重新预测。该文提出的扩展短期负荷预测方法可以满足这种需求,并在文中仔细阐述了该方法的应用背景、理论及概念,给出了实现方案。最后,以实际系统数据说明了该方法的必要性和实用性。The loads collected yesterday were used to predict the loads tomorrow in conventional short-term load forecasting concept. The load data currently collected were not adopted in conventional method. In order to meet the requirement of electricity marketing in China, a new concept of Extended Short-Term Load Forecasting is defined in this paper. A new forecasting mode is designed so that the historical load information just collected can be utilized by this method to refresh the forecasted loads of the rest periods in current day. An integrated optimization model is presented and a method to select optimal weights in the forecasting model is given. Operation practice of the method applied to a practical power utility shows that an accuracy improvement of more than 2% has been achieved by the proposed method. Possible areas of application of this method are also discussed.

关 键 词：短期负荷预测 电力系统 电网 电力市场 扩展方法 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]