我国旅游商品业发展的动态趋势及波动周期  

THE DYNAMIC TENDENCY AND FLUCTUATION CYCLE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF TOURISM SHOPPING IN CHINA

作　　者：李景宜[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学资源与环境学院

出　　处：《经济地理》2003年第2期272-275,共4页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(49571027)。

摘　　要：依据近20多年旅游外汇总收入与旅游商品外汇收入的统计数据,对1979—2000年旅游商品收入在旅游总收入中所占比重的变化进行分析;对旅游业和旅游商品业创汇收入年增长率的变化进行对比分析;建立了我国旅游商品业创汇收入的趋势方程;分析了我国旅游商品业发展的动态趋势及波动周期;最后运用趋势方程及周期规律,对未来5年我国旅游商品业的发展趋势做出预测。As everyone knows that tourism shopping industry is the important component of the region tourism industry. Based on the statistic data of tourism total incomes and tourism shopping incomes for resent 23 years, the trend equation for tourism shopping is established. Using this equation, the trend forecasting about the development of the tourism shopping in China in the coming 5 years can be made. The tourism shopping incomes will achieve 35.1 hundred million U.S.$ in 2001, 39.4 hundred million U.S.$ in 2002, 44.2 hundred million U.S.$ in 2003, 49.6 hundred million U.S.$ in 2004, and 55.7 hundred million U.S.$ in 2005. Finally, the dynamic fluctuation cycles of tourism shopping was analyzed. Using the wave period, it is discovered that the tourism shopping industry will be in expanding phase in 2001-2002, and it will enter a new development period in 2003. 

关 键 词：旅游商品业 趋势方程 波动周期 趋势预测 

分 类 号：F590.8[经济管理—旅游管理]