对油气圈闭勘探决策理论和方法的讨论  

Discussion about exploration decision-making theory and methods for oil and gas trap

作　　者：王川[1] 彭苏萍[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国石化石油勘探开发研究院,北京100083 [2]中国矿业大学,北京100083

出　　处：《石油学报》2003年第2期50-53,共4页Acta Petrolei Sinica

基　　金：中国石化新星石油公司油气资源评价科技攻关项目 (No.P0 1 0 76)

摘　　要：在运用目前流行的勘探决策方法 (如决策树方法等 )进行勘探决策时 ,无论勘探工作处于何阶段 ,总是要考虑勘探工作全过程的投入和产出。但油气勘探是分阶段的 ,若要在每个阶段的勘探决策工作中都考虑勘探开发全过程的投入和产出 ,一是会给勘探决策工作带来实际的操作困难 ,二是造成错误的勘探决策结果。若油气勘探工作在每个阶段都能以最小的成本实现每个阶段的工作目标 ,那么 ,油气勘探工作的全过程也就能以最小的成本 ,获得最好的结果。为此 ,提出了油气勘探决策工作应该分阶段进行 ,并提出了一种在勘探阶段以落实储量为目标而优选圈闭的勘探决策方法。When some frequently used exploration decision methods,for example the decision_tree method,are applied to exploration decision_making work,the total costs and profits of the whole exploration process aught to be considered,no matter which stage the exploration is.In that way,the exploration decision_making works are not easy to be done,and furthermore some error decision results often occur.The exploration process can be divided into several stages.Therefore some new decision_making methods should be constructed to fit in with each other.If the target of each stage can be reached completely with the lowest cost,the best result of the whole exploration process can also be reached completely with the lowest cost.In this paper,a new decision_making method is proposed.This method can be used to select some appropriate traps in order to get the largest reserves with the lowest cost.

关 键 词：勘探决策 油气圈闭 地质风险 勘探成本 预期储量 

分 类 号：TE112.3[石油与天然气工程—油气勘探]