中国外汇储备非均衡对汇率影响的经验分析  

Foreign Exchange Reserve Dis-equilibrium and its influence on RMB Exchange Rate

作　　者：许承明[1] 唐国兴[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京经济学院金融学系,南京市铁北街128号210003 [2]复旦大学管理学院,200433

出　　处：《世界经济》2003年第4期15-20,共6页The Journal of World Economy

摘　　要：本文分析了在固定汇率和管理浮动汇率制度下 ,中国外汇市场和外汇储备的均衡和非均衡 ,并根据 1 994年以来的季度数据 ,应用协整建模理论和方法 ,建立了人民币名义有效汇率的长期均衡和短期动态方程 ,定量地解释了在管理浮动汇率制度下人民币名义有效汇率短期变动的影响因素 ,验证了中国外汇储备非均衡对人民币汇率变动的短期效应。This paper analyzed equilibrium and disequilibrium of foreign exchange market and foreign reserve under fixed system and managed floating system in China. Applying seasonal data between January 1994 and April 2001, we estimated the long-run equilibrium and short-run dynamic equations of RMB nominal efficient exchange rate and explained the factors that effect nominal efficient exchange rate of RMB .The results also testify that the disequilibrium of foreign exchange reserve effects the nominal efficient exchange rate of RMB under the managed floating system in China.

关 键 词：中国 外汇储备 非均衡 汇率 经验分析 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]