西安市旅游商品业发展动态分析  

Dynamic analysis of tourism shopping development in Xi'an City

作　　者：李景宜[1] 

机构地区：[1]宝鸡文理学院地理科学与环境工程系,陕西宝鸡721007

出　　处：《宝鸡文理学院学报（自然科学版）》2003年第1期62-65,共4页Journal of Baoji University of Arts and Sciences(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(49571027);陕西省省级重点实验室重点研究项目(200206)

摘　　要：旅游商品业是区域旅游业经济效益产出的重要组成部分。以西安市旅游商品业近10多年的发展为例,依据统计数据,建立了西安市旅游商品业创汇收入的趋势方程;对1989～1998年旅游商品收入的比重以及旅游业、游旅商品业和旅游劳务创汇收入年增长率的变化进行对比分析;分析了西安旅游商品业发展的动态趋势及波动周期;运用趋势方程及周期规律,对未来5年西安市旅游商品业的发展趋势做出预测。Tourism shopping industries is an important component of region tourist industries economic performance output.Takes the tourism shopping development in Xi'an City as an example, based on the statistic data of tourism total incomes, tourism shopping incomes and tourism services incomes, the growth rates of tourism total incomes, tourism shopping incomes and tourism services incomes were analyzed and compared for 10 years(1989～1998);the regression equation for tourism shopping was established,the regression equation is y=3 479.624 2 t-3 531.333 3,where t=1,2,3,...,relative coefficient r=0.975 6;the dynamic tendency and fluctuation cycles of tourism shopping was established.Finally, the regression equation and cycle law is applied to predict the developing trend of the tourism shopping in Xi'an City for next 5 years.

关 键 词：旅游商品业 趋势方程 波动周期 趋势预测 西安市 区域旅游业 发展趋势 

分 类 号：F592.741[经济管理—旅游管理]