西北气候环境转型信号在新疆河川径流变化中的反映  

The Signal of Climatic Shift in Northwest China Deduced from River Runoff Change in Xinjiang Region

作　　者：张国威[1] 吴素芬[1] 王志杰[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆水文水资源局,新疆乌鲁木齐830000

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2003年第2期183-187,共5页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：中国科学院知识创新工程重大项目 (KZCX1 10 0 6;KZCX2 3 0 1) ;国家自然科学基金重大项目 (90 2 0 2 0 13 )资助

摘　　要：对新疆不同区域、不同补给类型的 2 6条河流年平均径流量变化趋势分析研究 ,结果显示 :大多数河流年径流量从 1987年起出现增加趋势 ,天山山区增加尤其明显 ,其它地区有不同程度的增加 ,昆仑山北坡略微有减少 .从径流变化来分析 ,天山山区的气候变化已出现由暖干向暖湿转型的信号 ,其它地区也正处在转型过程中 .Under the global warming, mainly in the middle and west regions of northwest China, the climate is characterized basically with the development of warm-dry since the ending of the Little Ice Age about during 1860s to 1880s until 1980s. While a climatic shift to warm-wet happened in 1987. Since 1980s, air temperature has been increasing more rapidly. The average air temperature during 1987 to 2000 had risen by 0.7 ℃ as compared with that during 1961 to 1986. During 1990s, it is the warmest period in recent 1000 years, its temperature is 0.8 ℃?0.7 ℃ and 0.5 ℃ higher than that of 1960s, 1970s and 1980s respectively. Nevertheless, going with the rapid rising of air temperature, precipitation and glacial melt water increase also rapidly widespread. As compared with the period from 1961 to 1986, the average yearly precipitation during 1987 to 2000 increases by 22% in the north Xinjiang , 33% in the south Xinjiang, 12% in the Tianshan Mountains. Along with the increase of precipitation, the hydrological conditions and ecological environment are also correspondently changed. Most rivers in Xinjiang, have experienced the trend of yearly runoff increase since 1987, and the increase range is averaged at more than 5%, and is above 20% in most regions and the maximum increase range arrives at 40% from the years of 1956 to 1986 and to the years of 1987 to 2000. The increasing trend is quite clear in the Tianshan Mountains, and is clear, more or less, in the other areas. However, the changing trend is slightly decreasing in the Kunlun Mountains. Based on analysis of annual runoff variation, a signal of climate shift from warm-dry to warm-humid can be seen in the Tianshan Mountains, but in the other areas it seems still in the process of climatic shifting. Further work is required to improve the ability to detect, attribute, and understand climate change, to reduce uncertainties, and to project future climate changes. Adapting the change of the climatic pattern, we have to promote that which is profitable and abolish

关 键 词：气候环境 新疆 河流年平均径流量 气候变化 天山 径流变化 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P339[天文地球—水文科学]