实时海温对动力延伸(月)预报影响的数值试验研究  

NUMERICAL EXPERIMENT ON EFFECTS OF REAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ON DYNAMIC EXTENDED (MONTHLY) FORECASTING

作　　者：骆美霞[1] 张道民[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学国家重点实验室,北京100029

出　　处：《应用气象学报》2002年第6期727-733,共7页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

基　　金：国家"九五"重点科技项目 :"我国短期气候预测系统的研究"资助

摘　　要：对 1 992年 7月 1 0日、1 9日和 1 997年 7月 1日 3个个例 ,进行了实时海温和气候海温的对比数值试验 ,研究实时海温对月尺度数值预报的影响。个例试验结果表明 ,实时海温对1 0天以下的数值预报影响较小 ,但对月时间尺度的数值预报的影响则十分明显 ,实时海温对大气的强迫作用同模式大气的初值和预报模式包含的物理过程以及海温异常的强度有关。The comparative numerical experiments with real and climatic sea surface temperature (SST) for three cases are performed, by using the global spectral model. These cases are on July 10, July 19,1992 and July 1, 1997, respectively. The effects of real SSTs on the monthly dynamic extended forecast are investigated by the different circulation changes in the general circulation model generated with real and climatic SSTs. The results of numerical experiments show that the effect of real SST on predictions less than 10 days is not obvious, but the impact on monthly forecasts is obvious. The forcing effect of real SST on the monthly forecasts is complex and may be related to the initial conditions of numerical integration, the various physical processes included in the forecast model, and the strength of SST anomalies.

关 键 词：动力延伸预报 数值试验 数值预报 实时海温 降水 温度 高度场 夏季风活动 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]