热带气旋路径集合预报方法研究I——正压模式结果的初步分析  

THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTING OF TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION I:USING A PRIMITIVE EQUATION BAROTROPIC MODEL

作　　者：周霞琼[1] 端义宏[1] 朱永禔[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海台风研究所,上海200030

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2003年第1期1-8,共8页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助 (批准号: 40005003)

摘　　要：选择1979～1993年间的热带气旋为试验个例,通过扰动热带气旋初始位置和初始结构,构造集合成员, 用正压原始方程模式,进行路径集合预报试验, 并初步探讨预报成员的集合方法。试验结果表明:热带气旋定位误差影响路径预报,但扰动初始位置的集合平均预报与控制试验的预报水平相接近。扰动热带气旋初始结构的集合预报试验表明,约有60 %～70 %个例的集合路径预报得到改进。此外,试验结果还表明,当环境引导气流较弱时,进行扰动热带气旋初始结构的集合预报,预报结果的改善较明显。Ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclone(TC) motion was studied using a primitive equation barotropic model by perturbing initial position and structure for 1979～1993 TC. The results show that TC initial position perturbation make its track different, but ensemble mean is close to control forecast. Experiments was also performed by perturbing TC initial parameters which were used to generate TC initial filed, and more improvement can be obtained bY taking ensemble mean of selective member than selecting member randomly. 60 %～70 % of all cases?skill is improved in selective ensemble mean. When the environmental steering is weak, more improvement can be obtained over the control forecast.

关 键 词：热带气旋路径集合预报方法 正压原始方程模式 初始结构 台风 数值预报 

分 类 号：P457.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]