广东沿海强东北季风的概率预报方法  

THE PROBABILITY FORECAST TECHNIQUE ON STRONG NORTHEAST MONSOON ALONG THE COAST OF GUANGDONG

作　　者：毛绍荣[1] 林镇国[1] 梁健[1] 李晓娟[1] 

机构地区：[1]广州中心气象台,广东广州510080

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2003年第1期94-100,共7页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：中国气象局重点研究课题"南海海洋天气预报技术研究"资助

摘　　要：通过对1988～1997年十年中冷空气造成的广东沿海强东北季风过程的统计研究,挑选出多个与强东北季风相关程度较高的因子作最优因子组合,分月份、分时次共设计了24条概率预报方程,从而建立起冬春季强东北季风概率预报方法,因子结构合理,处理技术科学,所有计算过程完全客观定量。预报检验和业务试验表明,该方法的预报结果效果良好,有较高的应用参考价值。In this article we made a statistical research on strong northeast monsoon along the coast of Guangdong province caused by cold air during the decade from 1988 to 1997. Several factors with high relevance to strong northeast monsoon are selected to make out the optimal combinations. 24 probability forecast equations are designed based on monthly and forecast period to construct the probability forecast technique for strong northeast monsoon forecast during winter and spring. With rational selection of predictors, scientific processing and fully objective and quantitative computation, the forecast method proves to be valuable in application in forecast practice.

关 键 词：广东 冷空气 东北季风 概率预报 最优因子组合 

分 类 号：P457.5[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]