Effect of Aftershocks on Assessment of Seismic Hazard for Hebei Seismic Zone,China  

作　　者：LiuZhihui FuZhengxiang 等 

机构地区：[1]SeismologicalBureauofHebeiProvince,Shijiazhuang050021,China [2]CenterforAnalysisandPrediction,Beijing100036,China

出　　处：《Earthquake Research in China》2002年第2期160-166,共7页中国地震研究（英文版）

基　　金：thesub project(95 13 0 6 0 4 )oftheproject"MechanismandPredictionofContinentStrongEarthquake" (G19980 4 0 70 0 )andtheprojectofseismiccooperationfoundation"ResearchofNewMethodandApplicationofEstimationofCrustalDeformationbyUncompleteSeismicD

摘　　要：In this paper, the earthquake hazard parameters (λ m,b and M max) from the maximum likelihood method for the raw catalogue and declustered catalogues have been used to discuss the effect of the aftershocks on the earthquake hazard estimation. The declustered catalogues have been compiled from the raw catalogues by deleting the aftershocks in different time interval after main shock according to the criteria for the aftershock activity period. As an example, Hebei seismic zone is taken to show the effect of the aftershock on the earthquake hazard assessment because three strong earthquakes with the aftershocks occurred from 1966 to 1976. The results have been shown that the effect of the aftershocks on the parameters λ m,b is significant. The difference between the clustered and declustered catalogues has reached in seismic activity rate and recurrence period, at most, 45% and 90%, respectively. But the difference in M max is smaller. Based on this, the suggestion that the aftershocks should be omitted in the estimation of the earthquake hazard could be made, but how long the aftershocks activity duration is still left to the future research.In this paper, the earthquake hazard parameters (λ m,b and M max) from the maximum likelihood method for the raw catalogue and declustered catalogues have been used to discuss the effect of the aftershocks on the earthquake hazard estimation. The declustered catalogues have been compiled from the raw catalogues by deleting the aftershocks in different time interval after main shock according to the criteria for the aftershock activity period. As an example, Hebei seismic zone is taken to show the effect of the aftershock on the earthquake hazard assessment because three strong earthquakes with the aftershocks occurred from 1966 to 1976. The results have been shown that the effect of the aftershocks on the parameters λ m,b is significant. The difference between the clustered and declustered catalogues has reached in seismic activity rate and recurrence period, at most, 45% and 90%, respectively. But the difference in M max is smaller. Based on this, the suggestion that the aftershocks should be omitted in the estimation of the earthquake hazard could be made, but how long the aftershocks activity duration is still left to the future research.

关 键 词：EFFECT AFTERSHOCK Seismic hazard ASSESSMENT Hebei seismic zone 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学]