二孩生育意愿和就业状况——基于中国劳动力动态调查的证据  

Fertility Desire and Employment Status:Evidence from China Labor-Force Dynamic Survey

作　　者：朱奕蒙[1] 朱传奇[1] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学岭南学院

出　　处：《劳动经济研究》2015年第5期110-128,共19页Studies in Labor Economics

基　　金：中山大学社会科学调查中心研究基金的慷慨资助

摘　　要：本文对全面二孩政策下育龄妇女的生育意愿及其影响因素进行研究,并着重考察生育意愿与就业状况的关系。为此,本文首先构建了一个内生性劳动供给和生育决策的跨期迭代模型,并利用2014年的中国劳动力动态调查数据,首次对全面二孩政策下妇女生育意愿及其影响因素进行分析。数据显示,在全面二孩政策下,只有28.9%左右的育龄妇女愿意生育二孩。实证结果证实了理论模型的推断,即拥有工作对妇女的生育意愿有显著的负向影响。其中,有工作已婚育龄妇女的二孩生育意愿比无工作已婚育龄妇女的二孩生育意愿低8.43%。This paper analyzes women's fertility desire and its determinants under the two-child policy.Specially,we study the relationship between women's fertility desire and their employment status.We build an OLG model with endogenous labor supply and fertility.In addition,we use data from China Labor-Force Dynamic Survey in 2014 to study women's fertility desire and its determinants empirically.We find that only 28.9 percent of women want to have a second child under the two-child policy according to the data.And we also find that,consistent with our model,having a job has a negative effect on women's fertility desire.The married employed women are 8.43 percent less likely to have a second child compared with those unemployed.

关 键 词：生育意愿 二孩政策 生育代价 

分 类 号：F249.2[经济管理—劳动经济] C924.21[经济管理—国民经济]