地震复发模型及云南强震趋势研究  

The Study on Earthquake Recurrence Model and Strong Earthquake Tendency in Yunnan

作　　者：晏凤桐[1] 

机构地区：[1]云南省地震局,云南昆明650041

出　　处：《地震研究》2003年第2期103-111,共9页Journal of Seismological Research

摘　　要：研究了中国西南及邻区 8级大震和云南强震 (M≥ 6 3 / 4)活动规律后得出 :8级大震活动幕具有 5 4年左右周期以及大震主体地区由南向北推移现象 ;云南三个主要地震活动区带分别具有 5 7年、4 7年地震轮回特征及lgTn =2 137- 0 397lgn规律。提出了弹簧—活塞地震复发模型 ,并对强、大地震周期性复发现象给出了合理的物理解释。据此预测 ,云南地区 2 0 2 1年以前处于强、大地震平静期 ,2 0 2 2年至 2 0 4 9年将处于强、大地震活动期。由于三大地震轮回的重叠 ,该活动期将是云南历时最长、释放地震能量特别巨大的地震活跃时期。It is obtained through studying activity law of large earthquakes with M 8 in southwest China and its neighboring areas and strong earthquakes with M ≥ 6 3/4 in Yunnan that active episode of large carthquakes with M 8 has the period of about 54 years and main areas of the large earthquakes move from south to north as well as the three main seimicity areas in Yunnan have seismic transmigration features of 57 and 47 years and the law of lg T n=2 137-0 397 lgn,respectively.The seismic recurrence model of spring-piston is given and periodic recurrence of strong and large earthquakes is explained physically.In view of the above,it is predicted that Yunnan area will be in quiet period without strong and large earthquakes before 2021 and in active period of strong and large earthquakes from 2022 to 2049.The active period will be the largest seismic active period with great released energy from earthquakes in Yunnan because transmigration and overlay of the three large earthquakes.

关 键 词：地震复发模型 云南 活动规律 大震活动幕 地层活跃时期 

分 类 号：P315.5[天文地球—地震学]