上海市合理人口规模研究  

Research on rational scale of population in Shanghai

作　　者：张瀛[1] 王浣尘[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学管理学院,上海200030

出　　处：《管理科学学报》2003年第2期1-11,共11页Journal of Management Sciences in China

基　　金：上海市重大决策咨询研究课题资助项目(2001_A_57_B).

摘　　要：21世纪上海发展战略的目标是成为国际大都市,上海人口规模的发展应与之相适应.从影响城市合理人口规模的城市经济水平、社会生活、资源水平、生态环境和实力需求等诸方面进行分析,利用PS辅助决策系统,对交通、环境等因素进行了定性和定量分析,经过多方案比较,得出了上海市合理人口规模目标和实现所需的条件.运用灵敏度分析对影响合理人口规模的各因素进行分析,确定出影响合理人口规模的关键因素,并经过系列方案分析比较得出了上海市人口规模曲线图,为政府决策提供了科学的依据.During 21th century, the objective of development strategy of Shanghai is to be an international metropolis, so the scale of population must be adaptable to it. Determining the rational scale of population is a complex problem, it concerns many aspects, such as the level of economy, ecological environments, etc. And each aspect includes many factors, which are interdependent and interactive. This paper studies the reasonable population scale in Shanghai based on the PS aided decision system (PSDAS). Qualitative and quantitative analysis are done about traffic, environment and other factors. This paper also analyzes, calculates, displays and outputs the result on the computer. This paper gets the reasonable population scale in 2050 in Shanghai and relevant conditions. The sensitivity analysis was used to find out the crucial factors that influence the reasonable population scale in Shanghai greatly. By comparison and analysis of many schemes, we got a diagram of curves of the scale of population, which provides a scientific basis for policymakers to make a strategic decision.

关 键 词：可能度 满意度 可能-满意度 灵敏度分析 

分 类 号：C924[社会学—人口学]