外科病人术后医院感染的预测研究  

A predictivce study on the postoperative nosocomial infection of surgical patients

作　　者：胡东升[1] 周元方[1] 韩升高[1] 郗园林[1] 杨春旭[1] 

机构地区：[1]河南医科大学预防医学系流行病学教研室,广西右江民族医学院流行病学教研室

出　　处：《河南医科大学学报》1992年第1期42-46,共5页Journal of Henan Medical University

摘　　要：用逐步回归分析方法,建立了一个预测术后医院感染发生的数学模型。其回代预测的灵敏度为78.82%,特异度为67.59%,回顾预测的灵敏度为68.29%,特异度为68.60%,对前瞻研究样本的预测灵敏度为76.92%,特异度为67.46%。A mathematical model for predicting the risk of the postoperative nosocomial infection was developed with stepwise regression analysis. The factors taken into consideration in the model were age, the number of diagnosis, the state of consciousness after anaesthesia, wound classification, blood oozed out of the wound, invasive procedures, urinary catheter, the days of using steroid, and the Hb contents. The sensitivity and specificity for retrospective prediction were 68.29% and 68.60% respectively, those for prospective study sample, 76.96% and 67.46% respectively.

关 键 词：医院感染 预测 外科病人 

分 类 号：R181.13[医药卫生—流行病学]