地震预测的构造物理模型研究  

Study on tectonophysical model of earthquake prediction

作　　者：邓志辉[1] 王绳祖[1] 黄秀铭[1] 周本刚[1] 徐好民[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地质研究所,北京100029

出　　处：《地震》2003年第2期21-28,共8页Earthquake

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展规划项目"大陆强震机理与预测"(95130503);"九五"国家地震局攻关项目(9504070103)

摘　　要：在系统收集和分析中国大陆的活动构造、地震活动和地球物理场资料的基础上,初步圈定出769个构造物理潜在震源,并对其中477个位于主要强震区、带内的潜在震源进行了空间几何定量描述和基本震源参数的系统分析,在GIS平台上开发了分析系统,逐一计算了每一潜在震源的十年发震概率,圈定了1999～2008年的强震危险区,根据发震概率的大小对危险区的危险性进行分类。近几年发生的强震与预测结果的对比检验结果表明,用构造物理模型确定的十年地震危险区具有较好的预测效果。Having collected and analyzed the active faults, seismicity and geophysical fields, 769 potential tectonophysical seismic sources were defined. 477 sources studied in this paper are located along major seismic belts in China's continent. The spatial geometric data are quantitatively described and the source parameters are systematically studied. The analytical system is developed on GIS platform. The probability of strong earthquake occurrence in the decade is calculated. The danger regions in 1999~2008 are predicted. These danger regions can be divided into 3 grades according to their probability. The prediction shows a good result predicting the strong earthquake occurrence from 1999 to 2001 in China's continent.

关 键 词：地震预测 构造物理模型 危险性 构造物理 发震概率 活动构造 地震活动 地球物理场 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]