日本扩张性财政政策失效的原因分析  

Analysis of the Causes of the Failure of Japan's Expansionary Financial Policies

作　　者：孙健夫[1] 马卫红[2] 

机构地区：[1]河北大学管理学院,河北保定071002 [2]河北大学经济学院,河北保定071002

出　　处：《现代日本经济》2003年第3期6-10,共5页Contemporary Economy OF Japan

摘　　要：90年代泡沫景气崩溃后,日本政府多次运用扩张性财政政策来刺激经济,却始终没走出泡沫经济的阴影。究其原因,可能是多个方面综合作用的结果。而从投资乘数理论出发,深入分析90年代日本财政政策失效的原因,则主要是因为:公共投资所产生的引致投资没达到预期效果,并对民间投资产生了挤出效应,加之景气预测始终没有形成,致使边际消费倾向低,从而导致公共投资乘数缩小。After the collapse of bubble prosperity in the 1990s, the Japanese government tries many times to stimulate its economy by expansionary financial policies but has so far failed to achieve much effect. The failure may have been resulted from the composite effect of many factors. And, if we analyze the causes of the failure of Japans financial policies in the 1990s in an in-depth way by applying the investment multiplier theory, we can see that the chief causes are that public investment has not only failed to result in the expected effect, but, on the contrary, has resulted in a squeezing-out effect on non-governmental investment. This, plus the fact that the expected prosperity has never become reality, has led to low marginal consumption inclination and shrunken public investment multiplier.

关 键 词：日本 扩张性财政政策 政策失效 投资乘数理论 民间投资 挤出效应 景气预测 边际消费倾向 公共投资乘数 

分 类 号：F813.130[经济管理—财政学]