用非线性映象法作钦州市月降水量预报的研究  

The Trial Utilization of Non-linear Image in Monthly Precipitation Forecast in Qinzhou

作　　者：何小娟 

机构地区：[1]钦州市气象局,广西钦州535000

出　　处：《广西气象》2003年第1期23-25,63,共4页Journal of Guangxi Meteorology

摘　　要：选取反映大气环流作用的500hPa的三个因子场:1956～2001年环流特征量、振幅和位相资料作为预报因子与钦州市1957～2002年5月降水量求相关比,将求得的高相关比因子用非线性映象法制作钦州市1995～2002年5月的降水量预报,试报效果明显。A correlation ratio is obtained by using the three factor fields of the 500HPA reflecting the atmospheric circulation actions: circulation characteristics quantity during 1956 ~ 2001, amplitude and phase information, as the forecast factor, as well as the precipitation of Qinzhou in May of 1957 ~ 2002. The obtained high correlation ratio factor is applied to the forecast of precipitation in May of the same period by way of nonlinear image, and the attempt proves a good effect.

关 键 词：非线性映象法 钦州市 月降水量预报 大气环流 振幅 位相 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]