Seismicity anomalies before the great earthquake of M_S=8.1 in the Kunlun Pass and its significance to earthquake prediction  

作　　者：刘蒲雄 郑大林 车时 潘怀文 刘桂萍 杨立明 

机构地区：[1]CenterforAnalysisandPrediction,ChinaSeismologicalBureau [2]ChinaSeismologicalBureau [3]LanzhouInstituteofSeismology,ChinaSeismologicalBureau

出　　处：《Acta Seismologica Sinica(English Edition)》2003年第2期219-225,共7页

摘　　要：A great earthquake of MS=8.1 took place in the west of Kunlun Pass on November 14, 2001. The epicenter is lo-cated at 36.2N and 90.9E. The analysis shows that some main precursory seismic patterns appear before the great earthquake, e.g., seismic gap, seismic band, increased activity, seismicity quiet and swarm activity. The evolution of the seismic patterns before the earthquake of MS=8.1 exhibits a course very similar to that found for earthquake cases with MS7. The difference is that anomalous seismicity before the earthquake of MS=8.1 involves in the lar-ger area coverage and higher seismic magnitude. This provides an evidence for recognizing precursor and fore-casting of very large earthquake. Finally, we review the rough prediction of the great earthquake and discuss some problems related to the prediction of great earthquakes.A great earthquake of MS=8.1 took place in the west of Kunlun Pass on November 14, 2001. The epicenter is lo-cated at 36.2N and 90.9E. The analysis shows that some main precursory seismic patterns appear before the great earthquake, e.g., seismic gap, seismic band, increased activity, seismicity quiet and swarm activity. The evolution of the seismic patterns before the earthquake of MS=8.1 exhibits a course very similar to that found for earthquake cases with MS7. The difference is that anomalous seismicity before the earthquake of MS=8.1 involves in the lar-ger area coverage and higher seismic magnitude. This provides an evidence for recognizing precursor and fore-casting of very large earthquake. Finally, we review the rough prediction of the great earthquake and discuss some problems related to the prediction of great earthquakes.

关 键 词：SEISMICITY earthquake prediction great Kunlun Pass earthquake of MS=8.1 

分 类 号：P315.5[天文地球—地震学]