基于分形理论的铁路货运量分析  

Analysis of railway freight volume based on fractal theory

作　　者：李红启[1] 刘凯[1] 

机构地区：[1]北方交通大学交通运输学院,北京100044

出　　处：《铁道学报》2003年第3期19-23,共5页Journal of the China Railway Society

摘　　要：论证了分形理论用于铁路货运量分析的可行性;计算出铁路年货运量时间序列集的分维,并结合有关的数学、物理理论分析了该分维的意义;用定性分析与基于分形理论的定量计算预测了2001～2010年中国铁路货运量的发展水平。It is demonstrated that using fractal theory to analyze the railway freight volume is possible. The fractal dimensions of the time sequence of railway freight volume are calculated and their meanings are explained by combining the concerning the mathematics and physics knowledge. The developing tendency of railway freight volume from 2001 to 2010 has been forecasted also.

关 键 词：分形 分维 货运量 预测 

分 类 号：U294.13[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]