劳动力老龄化背景下农机作业服务与农业科技培训对粮食生产的调节效应研究——基于江西省的微观调查数据  

Regulation Effect of Agricultural Machinery Operational Services and Agricultural Science and Technology Training on Grain Production under the Background of Aging Labor Force——Based on the Micro-survey Data of Jiangxi Province

作　　者：彭柳林[1] 池泽新 付江凡[1] 余艳锋[1] PENG Liulin;CHI Zexin;FU Jiangfan;YU Yanfeng

机构地区：[1]江西省农业科学院

出　　处：《农业技术经济》2019年第9期91-104,共14页Journal of Agrotechnical Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:71363023),国家自然科学基金项目(编号:71663020);江西省青年马克思主义者理论研究创新工程资助项目(编号:18QM27);2018年度农业部稻米全产业链监测预警项目(编号:ri36c00001);江西省现代农业(水稻)产业技术体系项目(JXARS-02);江西省现代农业(油菜)产业技术体系项目(JXARS-08);江西现代农业科研协同创新专项(编号:JXXTCX201801-01);国家重点研发计划课题(编号:2018YFD0301105)

摘　　要：本文基于江西省20个粮食主产县408份农户调查数据,在理清农业劳动力老龄化与粮食生产'十三连丰'的内在逻辑基础上,实证分析了农业劳动力老龄化对粮食生产的影响。接着,引入农机作业服务和农业科技培训作为调节变量,考察劳动力老龄化背景下农机作业服务和农业科技培训是否对粮食生产具有正向调节效应。研究结果显示:65岁以上老龄农业劳动力会给粮食生产带来显著的负向影响,农机作业服务具有显著的正向调节作用,而农业科技培训暂时并未表现出显著的正向调节作用。进一步,从农业科技培训意愿、认可度、应用水平和依赖程度等方面,分析当前劳动力老龄化背景下农业科技培训对粮食生产不具有正向调节作用的原因,并提出相应的对策建议。Based on 408 household survey data from 20 major grain producing counties in Jiangxi Province,this paper empirically analyzed the impact of the aging of agricultural labor force on grain production on the basis of clarifying the internal logic of the aging of agricultural labor force and the'thirteen successive abundances'of grain production.Then,the agricultural machinery operation service and agricultural science and technology training are introduced as moderator variables to examine whether agricultural machinery operation service and agricultural science and technology training have positive moderating effects on grain production under the background of aging labor force.The results show that the aged agricultural labor force over 65 years old will have a significant negative impact on grain production,and agricultural machinery operation service has a significant positive regulatory role,while agricultural science and technology training has not shown a significant positive regulatory role for the time being.Further,from the aspects of willingness,acceptance,application level and dependence of agricultural science and technology training,this paper analyses the reasons why agricultural science and technology training has no positive moderating effect on grain production under the background of the aging of labor force,and puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.

关 键 词：农业劳动力老龄化 粮食生产 农机作业服务 农业科技培训 调节效应 

分 类 号：F323.3[经济管理—产业经济] F326.11