金融业务综合化对货币、利率的影响  

Money and Interest Rate Effects of Financial Services Comprehensivity

作　　者：钱小安 

机构地区：[1]中央金融工委研究室,北京100027

出　　处：《金融研究》2003年第5期24-35,共12页Journal of Financial Research

摘　　要：本文主要研究金融业务综合化对货币、利率的影响 ,提出金融业务综合化货币、利率效应假设 ,即 :金融业务综合化会产生货币替代现象 ,导致货币增长减缓 ,以及利率水平下降。此外 ,金融业务综合化还会加强货币市场与资本市场之间的联系 ,促进利率政策的传导。通过建立VAR模型 ,并以美国 1 95 9- 2 0 0 2年的有关数据为样本进行估计 ,进一步验证了金融业务综合化货币、利率效应假设。本文的理论意义在于 ,提出金融业务综合化对货币、利率影响的机制 ;政策含义在于 ,主张在货币政策制定和执行过程中 ,考虑金融业务综合化所带来的影响 ,并在宏观经济预测模型中加入金融业务综合化因素。This paper analyses the effects of comprehensive financial services on money and interest rate. The main idea of the research is that financial service comprehensivity will result in money substitution, leading to a decrease in money growth. As the relationship between money market and capital market is strengthened and transmission of monetary policy is promoted, interest rate goes down. A new VAR model is put forward in the paper, and the hypothesis of money and interest rate effect is examined by using the data of the US during 1959-2002. The distinct academic aim of the paper is to explain the mechanism of financial service comprehensivity and the important practical aim is to assert the money and interest rate effects of financial service comprehensivity into macroeconomic modeling. The other policy implication is that we should apply a new statistics system for financial services so as to improve transparence and soundness of financial system.

关 键 词：金融业 金融业务综合化 货币效应假设 利率效应假设 VAR模型 货币政策 宏观经济预测模型 美国 1959—2002年 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学] F837.12