基于最大龙口流速指标的立堵截流施工风险随机模拟研究  

Study of stochastic simulation of risks in end-tipped closure works system construction

作　　者：钟登华[1] 冯志军[1] 毛寨汉[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学建筑工程学院,天津300072

出　　处：《水利学报》2003年第4期15-19,23,共6页Journal of Hydraulic Engineering

摘　　要：截流系统受到水文水力等随机因素的影响,因此,设计的截流方案的风险如何是需要全面考虑的。本文从截流系统的风险认识入手,确定出能够反映截流系统风险的系统量,在理论分析的基础上,提出采用随机模拟计算方法来计算既考虑水文不确定性又考虑水力不确定性的截流系统风险计算方法,实例验证该方法的可行性。从而可以为截流系统的方案设计与比较起到辅助决策作用。In analyzing risks of closure works system, the authors took into account of all the risk factors for designing closure works system, which are influenced by random factors of hydraulics and hydrology. The variables of the closure works system risks were defined. A set of calculation methods of using stochastic simulation to study the closure works system risks were presented on the basis of theoretical analysis. The result of case study showed that the methods were feasible and can be applied as an assistant tool in designing and selecting closure works system scheme.

关 键 词：截流系统 风险分析 随机模拟 

分 类 号：TV135.5[水利工程—水力学及河流动力学]