中国资本外逃决定因素的动态计量经济分析  

The Dynamic Econometric Theory of the Forcing Factors of China's Capital Flight

作　　者：杨胜刚[1] 乔海曙[2] 田冬炜[2] 吴立源[2] 杨丽暑[2] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学金融学院教授 [2]湖南大学金融学院，湖南长沙410079

出　　处：《财经理论与实践》2003年第3期2-7,共6页The Theory and Practice of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金规划项目 (批准号 0 2BJL0 43 )

摘　　要：从分析与资本外逃相关的时间序列开始 ,依据现代动态计量学的理论方法 ,构建了一个关于资本外逃与其决定因素的自回归分布滞后模型 (ARDL) ,得出资本外逃与其决定因素之间的长期均衡关系系数和短期变动的误差修正模型 (ECM )。结果表明 :驱动中国资本外逃的主要经济因素为财政赤字增加、政治金融风险和汇率高估 ,内外资差别待遇是产生资本外逃的重要制度因素。This paper analyzes the characters of the time series of capital flight and its determinants. We present an ARDL model based on the dynamic econometric theory. By means of the ARDL methodology, we get appropriate long-run relationship between capital flight and its determinants and derive error correct model. The results imply that the budget deficit as a percentage of GDP, the politics and finance risk and the overestimation of the exchange rate are the economic forcing factors of capital flight. The discrimination of native and foreign capital is the systematic forcing factor.

关 键 词：中国 资本外逃 动态计量经济分析 决定因素 自回归分布滞后模型 误差修正模型 

分 类 号：F832.5[经济管理—金融学] F830.9