混沌经济系统的控制优化  

Improving the Performance of a Chaotic Economic System

作　　者：李煜[1] 盛昭瀚[1] 陈国华[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学管理科学与工程研究院,南京210093

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2003年第3期66-71,共6页Chinese Journal of Management Science

摘　　要：首先对经济混沌控制研究的现状进行了简要评述。以Bowly有限理性生产决策模型为例,从模型的动态复杂性演化机理、系统表现指标的提出与评价分析、不稳定不动点的打靶控制等方面进行了全面研究。提出了混沌经济系统的分岔控制思想及实现途径。研究表明,建立在对历史信息充分考量基础上的企业决策能够提高系统的稳定性。最后,对模型的拓展作了初步分析。A simple Bowly's model with bounded rationality is explicitly studied from three aspects,the complexity of the dynamic evolution of the model,the indexes to measure the system's performance,chaos control with targeting methodWe also propose the idea of bifurcation control and realize it in the economic systemWe find that the stability of the system will be increased if production decisions are made on comprehensive historical informationAt last we generalize the model and give an elementary analysis which deserves further study

关 键 词：Bowly有限理性模型 混沌打靶 分岔控制 

分 类 号：N945[自然科学总论—系统科学]