矿业工程项目投资价值实物期权评价方法  

Real Option Evaluation Method of Investment Value of Mining Projects

作　　者：张能福[1] 蔡嗣经[2] 刘朝马[3] 

机构地区：[1]安徽理工大学资源开发与管理工程系,安徽淮南232001 [2]北京科技大学土木与环境工程学院,北京100083 [3]浙江大学管理学院,浙江杭州310027

出　　处：《中国矿业大学学报》2003年第4期455-458,共4页Journal of China University of Mining & Technology

基　　金：安徽省教育厅自然科学基金(2003kj017zd)

摘　　要：根据矿业投资项目的投资特征,分析了矿产品价格和成本的随机特性,建立了矿业工程项目投资新的评价方法,弥补了传统NPV法的缺陷。同时,分析研究了矿业工程投资的不确定性和投资的可延迟性给矿业投资带来的投资机会价值。运用实物期权评价方法,建立了矿业投资机会价值评价模型;并讨论了突发事件对矿业投资价值的影响,建立了相应的分析方法和评价模型,为矿业投资决策提供了新的思路和决策方法。According to characteristics of mining investments, this article discussed the stochastic characteristics of price and cost of mineral products, and modeled a new method for investment valuation of mining projects. The method remedies the defects of traditional NPV method. Meanwhile, the article fully formulated the the value of investment opportunity brought by uncertainties and deferring of mining investments, and established an valuation model of mining investment opportunity value on the basis of the Real Option theory. The article also discussed the influences of some jump factors on investment values of mining projects, and set up a corresponding analysis method and valuation model. The established models provide a new decision - making thought and method for mining investors.

关 键 词：矿业工程项目 投资机会价值 实物期权评价 净现值 模型 市场风险 突发事件 

分 类 号：F407.1[经济管理—产业经济] F224.0