初始场和长波辐射对气候模拟的影响  

IMPACT OF INITIAL FIELD AND LONG WAVE RADIATION ON CLIMATE MODELING

作　　者：沈元芳[1] F. Baer 王超[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [2]Department of Meteorology [3]国家卫星气象中心,北京100081

出　　处：《应用气象学报》2003年第3期266-276,共11页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

基　　金：国家"十五"科技攻关项目 :"中国气象数值预报系统技术创新研究"(项目编号 :2 0 0 1BA60 7B)资助。

摘　　要：对CCM2 (T42L1 8)模式运行 1 0次 ,每次初始状态稍微变化。试验结果表明了CCM2模式对初始场的响应 ,1 0次运行长波辐射 (LWR)加热率的标准差在全球许多地方和谱的许多尺度上超过 1 0 %。相似的结果也可以从云和温度的计算结果中发现。从CCM 2算法的 1 0次运行和应用CCM 2、MOR和NMC三种不同的LWR算法的 3次运行的试验比较中发现 ,不同LWR算法模式运行之间的变率比没有LWR算法变化的初始场作用大得多。在CCM2模式中 ,比较应用CCM 2、MOR和NMC三种不同的LWR算法的气候模拟 ,我们发现CCM 2和MOR的算法比较接近 ,而和NMC的差别较大。但三种不同的LWR算法 3次运行积分结果的平均值和不同算法间的绝对差值在全球许多地方和不同尺度上的差别都超过 1 0 % ,远远大于初始场对气候模拟的作用。Ten realizations of CCM2 (T42L18) with only slight variations in the initial states have been carried out. The results reveal the response of CCM2 to the initial field, and it is evident that there is substantial variability in the runs, with deviations in many places on the globe and various spectral scales being in excess of 10%. Similar results are found for clouds and temperature. Comparing ten CCM2 algorithm runs with three runs using CCM2, MOR and NMC algorithms, it is evident that the climate simulations for the runs with different algorithms show much larger variability from one another than that for the initial field without changes of LWR algorithms. Comparing the modeling results using the CCM2, MOR and NMC algorithms in the CCM2 model, it can be seen immediately that CCM2 and MOR runs are closer to one another than to the NMC run. Nevertheless, the differences on all charts exceed 10% in many places on the globe, which are far above the impact of the initial field on climate modeling.

关 键 词：初始场 长波辐射 气候模拟 加热率 CCM2模式 LWR算法 天气预报 数值预报 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]