晚秋冷害概率预报方法  

PROBABILITY FORECAST FOR COLD DISASTER IN LATE AUTUMN

作　　者：梁国坚 李君 

机构地区：[1]山东省肥城市气象局,肥城271600 [2]山东省淄博市气象局,淄博255033

出　　处：《气象科技》2003年第1期54-57,共4页Meteorological Science and Technology

摘　　要：文章以历史天气图为基础 ,应用逐步筛滤和判别分析相结合的技术 ,建立了实用、精度较高的晚秋冷害概率预报可信度计算公式 ;结合数值预报产品 ,可制作延长时效的冷害预报。Based on the historical weather chart, a useful and more exact reliability calculational formula of the probability forecast for cold disaster in the late autumn is established by use of the stepwise screening method. A extended prediction for the cold disaster can be made by combining with the products of numerical weather prediction (NWP).

关 键 词：历史天气图 概率预报方法 天气预报 晚秋冷害 逐步筛滤 判别分析 数值预报产品 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P457.3