2020年中国GDP翻两番目标下石油天然气(工业)发展战略  

Development Strategy of Oil and Gas Industries to Achieve China's Goal of Quadrupling GDP in 2020

作　　者：贾文瑞[1] 徐青[1] 王燕灵[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油勘探开发研究院,北京100083

出　　处：《中国能源》2003年第7期18-24,共7页Energy of China

摘　　要：党的十六大提出了到2020年全面建设小康社会和国内生产总值翻两番的社会和经济发展目标。在这一远景目标下,作为重要能源的石油天然气如何发展,是本文试图研究的问题。文中首先分析预测了2020年中国经济发展和能耗水平,以油气的可供性和可持续发展为制约条件,提出未来中国能源发展方针和目标,以及具体的方案设想,从宏观上确立了石油天然气在我国未来能源消费结构中的地位,进而提出了石油天然气发展的总体战略意见。本文认为中国今后将处于完成工业化的发展阶段,从国际环境的发展和中国的国情出发,应走适合自身条件的能源发展路线,要引导能源消费,适度控制石油天然气消费的增长速度和消费总量。对石油工业要进行布局调整,产品结构调整以及建立经济的管理体制和经营方式,并从国家长远发展角度制定国际国内有关政策。The 16th National Congress of the Communist Party of China puts forward the social and economy development objectives of building a well off society in an all round way, and quadrupling the GDP by 2020. Under these prospects, this article tries to answer the questions of how to develop the petroleum and gas industry, because China has taken it as an important energy. To be restricted by oil and gas supply capability and sustainable development, it firstly analyses and forecasts the levels of the economy development and energy consumption in 2020. Secondly, it proposes China's energy development principles and objectives, and the detailed concept of schemes. In the view of macroeconomy, it positions the oil and gas in China's primary energy consumption structure in the future. Finally, it points out the overall strategic recommendations of oil and gas industry development in China. For the sake of the international environment development, and China's real situation, this paper suggests that China should take a energy development path suitable for its own conditions. It should guide the energy consumption, and adequately controls the growth rate and amount of oil and gas consumption. And it should adjust the layout of petroleum industry and the structure of products. It should establish effectively administrative system and management mode. Furthermore, China should formulate the relevant national and international oil and gas development policy in the view of long term development.

关 键 词：2020年 中国 石油天然气工业 社会经济发展水平 能源结构 油气发展战略 国内生产总值 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济]