一种强震概率预测方法  

A probabilistic method for strong earthquake prediction

作　　者：陈时军[1] 马丽[2] David Harte 王丽凤[2] 

机构地区：[1]山东省地震局,山东济南250014 [2]中国地震局分析预报中心,北京100036 [3]新西兰统计学联合会

出　　处：《地震》2003年第3期19-26,共8页Earthquake

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40074013);山东省自然科学基金项目(Y95E0670);新西兰Marsden基金项目(00 SRA 002 MIS)

摘　　要：介绍了利用Logistic回归进行地震危险性概率预测方法,对以新西兰地区相同时间段内地震活动性b值和等地震个数所覆盖空间区域的半径r为例,讨论了地震活动性参数的变化和强震发生的概率关系。研究表明,该地区强震发生的概率总体上与强震发生前一年半时间窗内的地震活动性资料计算的b值呈正相关关系,与r值呈负相关关系。该方法可以推广应用于研究其他异常分布和强震的概率统计关系。By using Logistic regression, a probabilistic method for strong earthquake predi ction has been introduced in this paper. The relation between seismic parameters and the probability of strong earthquake occurrence has been discussed by takin g b value and r, the range of a given number of events covered in a give n length of time sections in New Zealand as an example. Results show that the pr obability of strong earthquake occurrence has generally positive and negative co rrelation respectively for b value and r, which was estimated by events occurred in a time window of 1.5 year before strong earthquake occurrence. This method can be broadly applied to other anomaly distribution and the probabilisti c relation of strong earthquake occurrence.

关 键 词：强震 概率预测 LOGISTIC回归 地震危险性 地震活动性 地震预报 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]