塔里木河流域近40a来气候、水文变化及其影响  

Change of Climate and Hydrology in the Tarim River Basin during Past 40 Years and Their Impact

作　　者：王顺德[1] 王彦国[1] 王进[1] 毛炜峄 沈永平[3] 

机构地区：[1]阿克苏水文水资源勘测局,新疆阿克苏843000 [2]新疆环境气象中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [3]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2003年第3期315-320,共6页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目 (90 2 0 2 0 13;498710 2 1);中国科学院知识创新工程重大项目(KZCX1 10 0 6)资助

摘　　要：塔里木河流域平原地区在近 10a明显变暖 ,较明显的增湿出现在近 2 0a,大部分平原地区近10a反而略有变干的迹象 ;2 0世纪 90年代是流域山区近 4 0a来最暖阶段 ,在天山南麓中西部山区和帕米尔高原一带 90年代增湿幅度大 ,西昆仑山北坡一带近 2 0a降水变化很小 .塔里木河流域 4条源流出山口多年平均径流量为 2 2 4 9× 10 8m3 ( 195 7— 1999年 ) ,年代际尺度上 ,5 0— 80年代基本接近多年平均值 ,而 90年代由于受山区增暖变湿影响 ,4条源流径流量达 2 4 1 9× 10 8m3 ,增幅 7 6 % .由于源流区人类活动的影响和粗放型农业 ,补给塔里木河源流条数减少 ,塔里木河干流上中游区间耗水量严重 ,中下游水量来水量在近 4 0a中持续减少 。The Tarim Basin is the biggest arid inland basin in China. The Tarim River Basin is located in the southern half of Xinjiang. It is surrounded by mountains on three sides and is a closed-basin with no outlet to the sea. Most of the inner area of the basin comprises the Taklamakan Desert. From the confluence of its three main contributing tributaries, the Tarim River mainstream extends \{1 321\} km to Taitema Lake. There are numerous other rivers coming down from the mountains that disappear into the desert. A number of rivers fed by snowmelt and glacier melt begin in the mountains and drain into the basin with average annual virgin flow of about 35 billion m3. Around the rivers may be found oases of small villages and agriculture.\;The three tributary river systems that contribute flows to the Tarim River (Aksu, Hotan and Yarkant) join just above the Aler gauging station where the Tarim River begins. In addition the Kaidu-Konque River Basin, which is hydrologically separate from the Tarim River, contributes water to the Tarim River by means of a man-made transfer channel. Actual annual contributions under existing conditions are estimated to be 2\^9 billion m\+3 for Aksu, 1\^2 billion m\+3 for Hotan, 0\^1 billion m\+3 for Yarkant, and 0\^15 billion m\+3 for Konque, for a total of 4\^35 billion m\+3. All of this water is consumptively used before reaching the \!green corridor\'.\;In past 40 years, last decade (1991\_2000) is the warmest period for mountainous area and wettest period for the plain area, whereas increasing wet of the plain area appeared in last 20 years, and a lighten dry trend in last decade for most part of the plain except Aksu Oasis. A distinct increasing precipitation is in 1990s for most parts of mountains region of Tarim River Basin including the south slopes of the Tianshan and Pamirs, and but a decreasing precipitation zone is in west Kunlun Mountains during last 20 years.\;As the influence of the warm-wet weather on the river resources, the streamflow sourced from the four tributary river

关 键 词：塔里木河流域 气候变化 水文变化 径流量 人类活动 粗放型农业 生态环境 降水变化 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P339[天文地球—水文科学]