云南省雨季降水的年际年代际变化特征及其与热带上层海洋热含量分布的关系  

THE INTERANNUAL AND DECADAL VARIABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR YUNNAN PROVINCE IN RAINY SEASON AND ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH TROPICAL UPPER LAYER HEAT CONTENT

作　　者：郑春怡[1] 黄菲[2] 普贵明[1] 

机构地区：[1]云南省气象台,云南昆明650034 [2]中国海洋大学海洋气象系,山东青岛266003

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2003年第3期299-307,共9页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

摘　　要：利用云南省126个站1961～2000年的月平均降水资料,基于小波分析方法,研究了云南省雨季降水异常2～6年的年际变化特征和准30年的年代际变化特征,这种准周期振荡与热带海洋上层热含量的异常分布相关,在云南雨季降水偏多(少)的年份,整个印度洋异常偏冷(暖),西太暖地区异常偏暖(冷)而东太异常偏冷(暖)。而云南雨季前期冬季的印度洋上层热含量的异常,特别是南印度洋东西向偶极子型的热异常变化,以及中国南海深水海盆区上层海洋热状况的异常,都与未来云南雨季的降水异常有很好的相关关系,因此冬季南印度洋和南海海域的热状况对于未来云南雨季的旱涝有着很好的指示意义。Based on the monthly precipitation data of 126 observation stations from 1961-2000 in Yunnan Province, the interannual and decadal variability of precipitation in rainy seasons are studied by using wavelet analysis. It is shown that there is a 2-6 year oscillation at the interannual time scales and a quasi-30 year oscillation at the decadal time scales. These periodic oscillations relate to the distribution of tropical heat content. When the precipitation is much more (less) than normai, the upper seawater is colder (warmer) in almost all the tropical Indian Ocean, and warmer (colder) in the western Pacific as well as colder (warmer) in the eastern Pacific. The key areas of the anomaly heat content distribution that have significant correlation to the Yunnan precipitation in rainy season are in the southern hemispheric Indian Ocean with a dipole pattern in the winter as well as in the deep basin of the South China Sea (SCS) before the Yunnan rainy season begins. Therefore, the anomalous distributions of the heat content in the southern Indian Ocean and the SCS in winter are good indicators for predicting the drought or flood in Yunnan Province in the following rainy season.

关 键 词：云南雨季降水 年际年代际变化 热带海洋 热含量 

分 类 号：P426.614[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]