影响我国中央政府国债依存度因素的实证分析  

An Empirical Analysis of the Factors Affecting the Dependence Degree of the National Debt of the Central Government of China

作　　者：路万忠[1] 董逢谷[1] 李冻菊[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学统计学系,上海200433

出　　处：《财经研究》2003年第9期44-49,共6页Journal of Finance and Economics

摘　　要：近来,国内有些学者认为我国积极财政政策应该淡出,然而温家宝总理提出新一届政府将继续实施积极财政政策。本文以改革开放以来为研究时间段,取国债依存度(Y)为因变量,滞后一期国债依存度(Y-1)、宏观税率(X1)、财政收入集中度(X2)为自变量,应用BOX-COX变换等统计工具揭示了它们之间的相关关系。研究结果提示,宏观税率对国债依存度的正向作用,弱于财政收入集中度的反向作用。Although some people recently hold that the positive fiscal policy should be gradually stopped, Premier Wen Jiabao puts forward, however, that the new government will go on practicing the positive fiscal policy. Choosing the period from the time when China began its reforming and opening policy up to now as the studying time section, the paper takes the national debt dependence degree(Y) as the dependent variable, the national debt dependence degree(Y-1),the macroscopic tax rate(X1),and the fiscal income centralization degree(X2) as the independent variable, and utilizes statistical tools such as BOX-COX transformation and so on to reveal the correlation among the above variables. The results of the study show that the positive function of the macroscopic tax rate on the national debt dependence degree is weaker than the negative function of the fiscal income centralization degree on it.

关 键 词：积极财政政策 国债依存度 宏观税率 财政收入集中度 BOX-COX变换 

分 类 号：F810[经济管理—财政学] F810.5