论地震数值预报——关于我国地震预报研究发展战略的思考  

ON NUMERICAL FORECAST OF EARTHQUAKES —THINKING ABOUT THE STRATEGY FOR PROMOTING EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

作　　者：刘启元[1] 吴建春[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地质研究所,北京100029 [2]中国地震局科技发展司,北京100036

出　　处：《地学前缘》2003年第U08期217-224,共8页Earth Science Frontiers

基　　金：国家重点基础研究专项经费资助项目 (G19980 40 70 2 )

摘　　要：随着中国工业化和社会现代化进程的加快 ,中国城市化进程必将进一步加速。如何减轻地震灾害的问题正变得日益严峻。尽管地震预测是一个举世公认的国际性科学难题 ,但在强化各种减轻地震灾害措施的同时 ,仍须大力推进地震预测研究。为此 ,需要打破长期徘徊在以地震前兆异常监测为基础的经验性预测局面 ,把注意力尽快转向研究以动力学为基础的数值预报。以GPS为代表的空间对地观测技术 ,岩石圈巨型高分辨率宽频带流动地震台阵观测技术以及数值模拟技术已经为地震数值预报研究提供了前所未有的技术基础。以地震数值预报为目标的GPS阵列地壳形变连续观测 ,高分辨率地壳上地幔结构探测 ,地壳动力学 ,地震孕育和破裂过程的理论、模拟试验和实际观测 ,数据同化和计算软件的开发应成为今后研究的重点。现在的问题是 ,需要积极借助数值天气预报的经验 ,强化多学科 ,多部门的组织协调 ,尽早在有条件的地区开展地震动力学数值预报的科学试验。地震数值预报研究必将极大地促进中国地震科学基础研究和地震预报的进一步发展。With quick progress of the industrialization and societal modernization of China, the urbanization process will be also accelerated. Earthquake hazard mitigation becomes a challenge more severe in the future. Although the earthquake prediction is a sticker recognized universally, it will be still necessary to push forward the earthquake prediction investigation, simultaneously with strengthening the earthquake hazard mitigation. The case of stagnating at the empirical prediction based on earthquake precursors must be changed and it will be necessary to focus our much attention on the numerical forecast based on earthquake dynamics.The modern technologies of satellite geodesy represented by the GPS, broadband seismic observations by the aid of portable mega-array as well as numerical simulation have provided with unprecedented technical sustention. Various projects like the GPS array observation, the crust and upper mantle structure exploration with high-resolution, the crustal dynamics, theoretical, laboratory and observational studies of earthquake gestation and rupture process, data assimilation and software development should be integrated and become the key points emphasized in the future earthquake numerical forecast studies. Now the problem is to strengthen and to coordinate multidisciplinary and branch cooperation, and especially, we need to be aided in the experience of weather numerical forecast to carry out the earthquake numerical forecast in some appropriate region as soon as possible. This will promote greatly the progress of earthquake science and earthquake prediction of China.

关 键 词：数值模拟 地震台阵 GPS 地壳形变 数值预报 地震预报 

分 类 号：P553[天文地球—构造地质学] P228.4[天文地球—地质学]